STATZ innit bruv! OK, so everyone knows I like stats, but for the most part analysing anything other than the goals scored and the final result if a waste of time. I have read all the so-called clever theories about XG expected goals and various other market beating bollox, surprisingly I understand all that linear regression, variances, deviations, multinomial coefficients and all the other stats stuff, honest I do, I spent many years when I was alive writing statistical software for big corporations, mostly used for tax avoidance, oh well, I was a geek mercenary, coding for money! I laughed when that bloke in the other place tried to teach me how to suck eggs and argued that 'puter algorithms with historical data could 'beat the market and predict the future' - ha, ha, ha, I would have nutted him if we had been having that conversation in a business setting - "Even after studying the historical data of me never having smashed my forehead into your forehead before, you could not predict I would have done that, twice, could you?" - "Twice?" he would have asked and you can guess what happened then eh? Using stats to predict a football result is futile, like resistance, that too is futile. All these Distance Travelled, Duels Won and other total bollox, irrelevant measures get right up my fucking nose innit? Possession stats are also not that useful, shots, shots on gaol and all the rest of that malarkey as well. "No Dorset!" I hear you cry out. "Surely the possession stats will tell us who was the better side and if we monitor those stats along with the shots on goal as the game progresses we will surely see who will win the game or be ready to win the next one", no way Pedro. Sorry to burst your Johnny Bag, but penetration and contraception are the only measures that tell us anything of value. Sticking you dodger ( ball) into the opponents receptacle or stopping the opponent from penetrating your tender, juicy, moist goal-hole are the only things that matter. Looking at just 2 games over the weekend, we see that despite MASSIVE superiority in possession, shots and shots on target both us and Manchester City failed to win, I haven't done a historical study on this yet because I can't really be fucked at the moment, and I KNOW what the answer will be anyway ( *Kiddies if you want to be super powered Statsman when you grow up, don't be a dick like Dorset, NEVER prejudge a study or people will think you are a total cunt like that Dutch bloke ) Having said all that, I love stats they tell us where we have been, what we have done and how well we have done it, but if someone offers you a way of making money from betting on football matches, unless of course it is me and even then I would have only told you the statistical probability of a Home Win, Away Win or Draw after each minute of the game based on the cumulative events of that game - cool huh? Nah you can't have it, you couldn't handle it!