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Manchester City A [PL] 17:30 Sat 21st January 2017

Dorset

Dorset

The Voice Of Reason
Founding Member
OK, I have bunged the minced up bits of the players and stuff into the sausage machine and have calculated the probabilities, I don't do that much because I have absolutely no self-control when it comes to gambling, so I don't do it much these days. I start off with a nice big bank in my Betfair account and promise myself I will only lay bets when the odds are right, I sears that I will calculate the odds on every match and never miss a 'proper' bet. That way could make money. But, along comes a match or a horse race or a golf tournament, darts, any fucking thing that can be gambled on that I have a 'feeling' about and I go fucking daft, the bank quickly disasters and I am fucked (not in a nice way).

Anyway, the probabilities based on my own personal 'model of probabililtyness' are:

City Win : 50%
Draw : 35%
Spurs win: 15%

Don't go all 'ooooh you bad man, how could you only give us a 15% chance' on me, this is what the sausage machine squirted out, my personal feeling is that we will win this 1-2. A 50% chance of not losing is OK, I wouldn't be too upset with a draw.

Other models will come up with very different ratings, plus as I have said a million times, football is NOT predictable,but if you consistently back or lay ALL the matches at slightly over the probabilities you might make money in the long run, but that is a full time job and the stress would give you a heart attack - yeah about time someone else had one of them!

The best odds the bookies are offering are 6/5 on City - this might be a value bet (based on my model) , but I won't be taking any of that ta very much! 2.2 is on offer at the moment on Betfair which in real money is 6/5, same as the bookies.

The sausage machine tells me that here is a 92% chance of the game NOT being goalless, so you would want about 13/1 odds for that to make sense, it is 13/1 on Betfair - ooooh what a surprise!

My tip for this weekend is - keep your money in your pocket.
 
Don Diaz

Don Diaz

Zero tolerance of Numpty's
Founding Member
The referee is Andre Marriner...who also referee'd the home fixture. One of the better men in black, or green or yellow or whatever colour it is that they wear these days.
 
skiathospurs

skiathospurs

Well-Known Member
Founding Member
C2OQulUUAAAZ_Fu.jpg


lol
 
Glenjamin

Glenjamin

Moderator
Founding Member
Their keeper couldn't catch a cold.. Should prob win by about 8 with Alli, Eriksen and Kane pinging them at him from all angles!

Can't wait to get my official prediction wrong this week once I've stuck my savings on it!
 
skiathospurs

skiathospurs

Well-Known Member
Founding Member
Love this video of last years game taken before Kane`s penalty,what its like to be away in 20secs
 
birdonaball

birdonaball

Well-Known Member
Found my little monthly predictor thing I usually do, and for January I had us down (before we'd kicked a ball at the beginning of the season) to get 11 points for the month. Wins against Watford, WBA and Sunderland and 2 draws against Man City and Chelsea.

Now so far we have 9, with the potential for another 6. Now of course the season has gone the way it has and the game against Chelsea turned out to be a good three points. Two draws against them home and away would have only given us only two points, when a loss and a win has given us 3....it's a funny old game this football thing :confused:

What's the point of all this rambling I hear you say....well nothing really. Guess I'm just saying that losing to City wouldn't be the end of the world. I'm not saying we can't beat them, but football is an odd bloody game. The way the form guide is right now, we should beat them...but having been the team that has usually been the under dog in almost every friggin game, we know what its like when everyone is expecting you to get turned over- you raise your game and put in a performance from hell just to shove two fingers up at anyone who doubted you.

Man City are wounded big ass over paid donkeys. But the talent in that team is quite scary. I still think we can beat them, but I won't be trying to burn our ground down if we don't. Hardest thing Poch has to do is try and keep our heads firmly focused and realise that this will be harder than the Chelsea game. Why ? Everyone expected Chelsea to march on and get their record and be fabulous. We came along and ruined the party for them. This time round (other than Merson) almost every where I've looked they expect us to win. Man City is out to ruin OUR party and Pep will do his utmost best to do it.

So I stick with my draw prediction....but the sneaky Spurs fan in me is looking for 90+1 minute Eriksen free kick (god knows he is due one) to make the score 2-1.
 
skiathospurs

skiathospurs

Well-Known Member
Founding Member
Why Tottenham keep on improving and Man City are struggling - Jermaine Jenas
I am not surprised that Tottenham are doing so much better than they were at this stage last season, because I always thought what happened to their players when Leicester went on to win the league would help them go on to the next level this year.

Spurs face another big test at Manchester City on Saturday but they will be full of confidence after putting in one of their best performances of this campaign when City came to White Hart Lane at the start of October.

Back then, City had a 100% record in the league under Pep Guardiola but I still thought Spurs would beat them, and make a statement of intent. They did.

I also said then that I thought Mauricio Pochettino's side would go the distance in the title race this time, and part of the reason I felt that was because the experience of being in one, and losing it, builds strength of character.

Their younger players like Dele Alli and Harry Kane have developed in other ways too. They have both taken a step up, in fact the whole team has.
'The most powerful central midfield in the PL'
Spurs have had some criticism over some of their summer signings, but you do not need to go and buy lots of players when the ones you have already got are dramatically improving year on year.

I still think their squad is stronger now, though, especially in the central midfield which is key.

Last season, when Eric Dier and Mousa Dembele played together there, Spurs looked solid - they only lost one out of 26 league games with them both in the team.

In the games I saw, it was not the same whenever Pochettino switched things round in that department. The tempo dropped and it seemed some of the team's belief disappeared too. They lost five of the 12 league games they played without at least one of them.

So the addition of Victor Wanyama, who joined from Southampton for £11m in the summer, was massive.
Having Wanyama there means Pochettino can play Dier at centre-half without losing anything in the middle of the park.

Far from it, in fact, because Wanyama and Dembele have formed the most powerful central midfield partnership in the Premier League.
The other reason I think Spurs have progressed is their manager. Pochettino has gone up a level too.

Antonio Conte has rightly been given a lot of praise for his results in his first season at Chelsea after switching formation in September to play with three at the back.

But he has used that system throughout the majority of his coaching career, and he knows how it works.

It would have been more of a surprise if Conte had come to England and played with a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 and cracked the Premier League that way.

Nobody expected Pochettino to play with three centre-halves - before the start of this season he had only done it on one occasion since he arrived in English football with Southampton in January 2013.

But he has now used it five times since the start of November, starting with the derby against Arsenal at Emirates Stadium, when Spurs were struggling in the Champions League and missing several key players.

Everyone said it was a good time to play them, but Pochettino switched things round, got an unbelievable point and almost won the game right at the end.
Since then, Pochettino seems to be able to switch between a four and a three whenever he likes and be as successful. That has allowed him to adapt his side as the season goes along, reacting to where they were struggling.

The loss of Jan Vertonghen for a few weeks with an ankle injury is big because of the stability he brings to the team, but I am sure Kevin Wimmer will slot in pretty smoothly if they continue with a three.

Pochettino's sides are always solid at the back but a few weeks ago he felt as if he wasn't getting as much out of his attacking players as he could, and that is not the case now with that formation.

No weak links in Tottenham's strongest XI
While Tottenham don't have the strongest squad in the Premier League, I can understand why some people think they have got the best team.

When everyone is fit, they do not have a weak link in their strongest XI - everyone fits perfectly together into their style of play.

Spurs clearly have some outstanding individuals too of course. Hugo Lloris is arguably the best goalkeeper in the top flight - I don't think you can split him, Thibaut Courtois or David de Gea.
For me, Danny Rose and Kyle Walker are by far the best full-backs in the league and I said last season that I saw Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld as the two best centre-halves.

They are definitely the best defensive pairing in the Premier League anyway, but I am still confident Spurs will be able to cope while Vertonghen is injured.

As I have already said the midfield unit is extremely strong, and you could make a great case for Harry Kane being the best striker too.

Kane won the golden boot last season and is on fire at the moment too, but if I were to dissect every single position then there would be players from other clubs that, on paper, are better than what Spurs have got.

Having them instead might weaken Tottenham as a team, though. For example I would have Eden Hazard ahead of Christian Eriksen but without Eriksen you might lose some of the things that make the whole team tick.

Eriksen does not give you everything that Hazard would but he and Dele Alli have just started to get their almost telepathic understanding with Harry Kane going again.

The way those three link up is a good example of why Spurs are doing so well, and all over the pitch they have units or partnerships that have the same sort of understanding.

Why City are struggling in defence and attack
The biggest contrast between City and Tottenham at the moment is at the back. I think that is because unlike Pochettino, City boss Pep Guardiola does not have the players to play the way he wants to.

Guardiola has also tried playing with three centre-halves but it did not work because he used Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane as his wing-backs when they do not suit that role.

In the centre of defence, City have not found a partnership that is anything like the one Vertonghen and Alderweireld have either, and it does not help that they constantly chop and change their backline.

Guardiola has been tweaking things in attack too and, again, I am not sure it has helped some of their players.

Kevin de Bruyne was playing brilliantly at the start of the season, creating chances, scoring lots of goals and also winning the ball, but that was when he was playing centrally and he did not have the same impact when he was pushed wide.

I don't get why Guardiola did that. In September he was talking about De Bruyne being second only to Messi in terms of players he has coached. Well, you don't move Messi, do you?
Sergio Aguero has not been his usual deadly self in front of goal recently either, and I think he has been up and down all season.

Aguero has been sent off twice, including the retrospective red card he got against West Ham, and both incidents came through frustration.

You would not want to take that will to win out of his game because it is part of what makes him so brilliant but he does not look like a happy player at the moment.

That might be down to the system, but he is so good that at some point he will find form again and really take it out on the opposition - I just hope it is not Tottenham who take the hit.
Tottenham are flying at the moment - on a six-game winning run in the league, scoring goals for fun and probably playing better than ever under Pochettino.

They will have seen the way Manchester City have been defending recently and it will fill them with confidence ahead of their trip to Etihad Stadium on Saturday, as will the results of their recent meetings - Spurs have won the last three.

When they met at White Hart Lane in September, I knew Pochettino would look to press high up the pitch, and I looked at the way City were playing and thought it would play into Tottenham's hands. It did.
On form alone, I should probably be even more certain of a Spurs win this time, but the thing that keeps sticking in my mind is Guardiola's pride.

It has taken a massive hit in the last few weeks, especially in last week's 4-0 thumping at Everton which was his heaviest domestic defeat in more than nine years as a manager.

People like Pep are seriously dangerous when that happens, because they are born winners.

Just when you think things are going to get really hard for them, they dig deeper and find something within themselves to make their situation drastically different.

City have got lots of world-class players who can win games on their own. They are not playing particularly well at the moment, but it only takes one of them to perform on Saturday, and Spurs could be in trouble.

Jermaine Jenas was speaking to BBC Sport's Chris Bevan.
 
skiathospurs

skiathospurs

Well-Known Member
Founding Member
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38684434
For many, Claudio Bravo's first five months in English football were neatly summed up by the caller to the BBC's 606 phone-in last weekend who dubbed the Manchester City goalkeeper a 'false no. 1'.

The 33-year-old Chile international arrived with a reputation for fancy footwork but is now, to some, thought of as being a shot-stopper who does not stop shots - something Everton took full advantage of when they scored with every effort they had on target in Sunday's 4-0 win.

City's defence admittedly did not do much to help him at Goodison Park, but Bravo has now conceded a total of 23 goals from the 57 shots on target he has faced in the Premier League this season.

"It looks like people are playing City and thinking if they hit the target, they will score," MOTD2 pundit Phil Neville said in his analysis after watching Bravo's latest less than convincing performance.

"It is not even as if they are all going into the corners of the net - he is being beaten in the central areas of his goal too."

Do the stats back up that belief Bravo should have done better? According to Tom Worville, a data scientist at football analysts Opta, the answer is a resounding yes.

Using an historical database built using information such as the build-up, distance, angle and placement of more than 250,000 shots, Opta can evaluate 'Expected Goals' - the quality of any chance a player has, and how likely it is to be saved.

Or, in Bravo's case, whether it should have been...

How bad is Bravo then? 'The figures are pretty damning'
Based on the historic quality of those 57 shots on target against City, only 16 should have beaten Bravo, not 23.

The £15.4m summer signing from Barcelona has conceded 6.7 goals more than he should have done, putting him in the bottom five of the 23 Premier League keepers to have faced more than 100 shots in 2016-17.

PL keepers to have faced more than 100 shots in 2016-17 - the worst five
Rank
Keeper/club Expected goals conceded Actual goals conceded Additional goals conceded
19/23 Fraser Forster (Southampton) 19.7 26 6.3
20/23 Claudio Bravo (Man City) 16.3 23 6.7
21/23 Lukasz Fabianski (Swansea) 42.2 49 6.8
22/23 Ron-Robert Zieler (Leicester) 7.7 16 8.3
23/23 David Marshall (Hull) 26.3 37 9.7
It gets worse for Bravo when Opta focus on his current eight-game run that has seen him concede 14 goals from 22 shots on target.

"Of those 22 shots, we get an 'Expected Goals' figure of 7.33 - so he has conceded nearly double than expected in that time," added Worville. "It's a huge deficit, and the figures are pretty damning.

"I'm hesitant to jump to the conclusion that Bravo is a poor goalkeeper - we know that he isn't - but he's having a terrible time at the moment."
Most keepers are having a better time right now, including all of Bravo's counterparts at other top-six clubs.

It is a 12-goal swing from Bravo's figures to those of Burnley's Tom Heaton, the Premier League's top performer by Opta's calculations.

Heaton has saved almost five 'expected' goals this season - enough to give him the edge over the likes of Tottenham's Hugo Lloris and Arsenal's Petr Cech, who average around three apiece.

David de Gea has 'saved' one goal for Manchester United while Liverpool's Simon Mignolet has conceded one more than expected. All of them are doing much better than Bravo, though.
Few City fans thought that allowing Joe Hart to leave for a season in Serie A was a good idea back in August. It is possible only Pep Guardiola thinks that is the case now.

Over in Italy, Hart has had a positive effect to the Torino backline, despite conceding the same amount of goals and playing the same number of minutes as Bravo at City.
Bravo has delivered in one area for City, however, and it is the main reason they signed him in the first place.

His passing accuracy in his 18 Premier League games so far is 71.5%, ranked second only to Lloris. That might provide some solace to Guardiola, although even he would probably prefer it if his keeper started making some saves.

"Considering Joe Hart has conceded about one goal fewer than expected, it's easy to jump to the conclusion that with him between the sticks, City may have conceded fewer this season," Worville explained.

"Hart's playing behind a different defence though, which definitely has an impact on the quality of shots that he's facing.

"Additionally there's a lot more to goalkeeping than making stops, with the distribution side of things being one of the main reasons Bravo was bought back in the summer.

"Having Hart in the team may have lead to fewer goals conceded, but at the same time it may have impacted the style of play Pep wanted to implement."
 
Don Diaz

Don Diaz

Zero tolerance of Numpty's
Founding Member
I think we'll get Willy Caballero in goal tomorrow, although I hope we don't.
 
Dorset

Dorset

The Voice Of Reason
Founding Member
...."Having Hart in the team may have lead to fewer goals conceded, but at the same time it may have impacted the style of play Pep wanted to implement."
Everything is now clear, Pep's plan may have been impacted and he would not have achieved 5th place, 10 points behind the leaders, their lowest league position after 21 games in 8 years - if he had kept Hart. It all makes sense now, he's a doughnut!
 
Don Diaz

Don Diaz

Zero tolerance of Numpty's
Founding Member
Everything is now clear, Pep's plan may have been impacted and he would not have achieved 5th place, 10 points behind the leaders, their lowest league position after 21 games in 8 years - if he had kept Hart. It all makes sense now, he's a doughnut!
Round 137 ... Aguero vs Kane... 5.30pm Saturday 21st January.
 
Glenjamin

Glenjamin

Moderator
Founding Member
1-3 today lads. Kane double and alli.

Time for a warm up Guinness

COYS.
 
Don Diaz

Don Diaz

Zero tolerance of Numpty's
Founding Member
Any win is good tbh, just win lads.
 
Don Diaz

Don Diaz

Zero tolerance of Numpty's
Founding Member
So big Kev is the man....good luck mate.
 
skiathospurs

skiathospurs

Well-Known Member
Founding Member
Days like these !!!!
COYS !!!!!
 
boo

boo

Well-Known Member
Founding Member
here's an idea; why not give them loads of chances from our cock ups and make my palms all sweaty?
 
boo

boo

Well-Known Member
Founding Member
still, it's nil nil at half time and we can't come out for the second half and play the same, shirley?

dembele is a proper monster!

COYS!
 
skiathospurs

skiathospurs

Well-Known Member
Founding Member
Well,that was awkward !!
Still Poch will rally the lads,we have the 2nd half,usually our strongest to dish them some pain,it will be even sweeter for the fact it is unjust after that half!
 
Dorset

Dorset

The Voice Of Reason
Founding Member
I haven't looked to see what they are saying in the other place, I am worried that I might agree with them. I am getting really pissed off with this fucking passing back to Hugo then getting put under unnecessary pressure when we fuck up trying to pass the ball out. We are massively lucky not to be 3 or 4 down I reckon. This might be the most frustrating 45 minutes of football I have seen us play this season. The next time I see a pass back to Lloris I am going to get really, really, really fucked off.

OK, the Poch knows what he is doing and he has a plan and that plan is working but what the fuck? Maybe the plan is to con them into thinking they cam score by faffing around like cunts in and around our own box then smash a couple of counter attacking goals in? I don't get it.

OK, I hold my hands up, I am being a numpty today but I am optimistic we will be better in the second half.
 
Motspur Hotspur

Motspur Hotspur

Well-Known Member
I haven't looked to see what they are saying in the other place, I am worried that I might agree with them. I am getting really pissed off with this fucking passing back to Hugo then getting put under unnecessary pressure when we fuck up trying to pass the ball out. We are massively lucky not to be 3 or 4 down I reckon. This might be the most frustrating 45 minutes of football I have seen us play this season. The next time I see a pass back to Lloris I am going to get really, really, really fucked off.

OK, the Poch knows what he is doing and he has a plan and that plan is working but what the fuck? Maybe the plan is to con them into thinking they cam score by faffing around like cunts in and around our own box then smash a couple of counter attacking goals in? I don't get it.

OK, I hold my hands up, I am being a numpty today but I am optimistic we will be better in the second half.

I think you have to be optimistic, we can't be that bad again. Just clear your fucking lines boys also there's nothing wrong with playing long every time that wanker zabelletta makes that in behind danny rose we should smash the ball down that side for a runner, for fuck sake it's not hard is it, he'll think twice about doing it again when he has to sprint back!

The only thing worse than this half is the giant poo I just helped on it way, somehow SOMEHOW we are still in this so now is the time to lay down our challenge.

COYS
 
boo

boo

Well-Known Member
Founding Member
11 shots, 4 on target vs 2 shots, none on target lol!
 
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