Stolen from Reddit
With 4 games left to go, we are 5 points off 4th. Any reasonable person would look at that and say no chance. However, here in
r/coys we are not reasonable people so let's take a look at those with a chance of top 4.
Position | Games Played | Team | Points | GD |
---|
3 | 34 | Leicester | 63 | 22 |
4 | 34 | Chelsea | 61 | 22 |
5 | 34 | Tottenham | 56 | 22 |
6 | 33 | West Ham | 55 | 10 |
7 | 33 | Liverpool | 54 | 16 |
We sit in 5th. Liverpool can overtake us if they beat Man Utd with their game in hand but let's assume they don't. West Ham would need to win all 5 games, so let's assume they drop points in one of those. Let's also make an assumption that we win our remaining 4 games (including the Leicester game). This would give us a final points total of
68.
Therefore, we would need Leicester to take a maximum of 5 points or Chelsea to take a maximum of 7 points in the remaining 4 games. Given we are all the same goal difference, I'll make the assumption that us winning the final 4 games would give us the superior goal difference and that Chelsea and Leicester would need 1 more point than us to be ahead.
Leicester If we beat them on GW38, they will need 6 points in the other 3 games. Their fixtures for those other 3 games?
Newcastle,
Man Utd,
Chelsea.
They will most likely beat Newcastle, but United and Chelsea will definitely be a challenge.
Chelsea Chelsea need 8 points from their remaining 4. Their fixtures?
Man City, Arsenal,
Leicester, Aston Villa
A Man City win would mean 8 needed from the other 3. So they'd need to win all 3. Possible - but if they beat Leicester then we can overtake Leicester if Leicester fail to take 3 points from United.
Tottenham We would obviously need to win our remaining 4 to have a chance. Let's see our fixtures.
Leeds, Wolves, Aston Villa,
Leicester.
We undoubtedly have the easiest remaining fixtures. However, anything less than 4 wins is very unlikely to be enough and us getting top 4 could very easily come down to the final game vs Leicester.
Summary We need Man Utd to win or draw vs Liverpool in their game in hand.
West Ham to drop points in one of their remaining 5 games.
Whoever loses in the Chelsea vs Leicester game needs to then lose 1 more game.
If Chelsea lose we need Man City or Arsenal to take points off them.
If Leicester lose we need United to take points off them.